or without a sudden collapse in export demand

Legitimate expectations of the a-share risk of systemic lupus killed fell hard again now, short just 6 trading days on the huzhi is back again 2 swtor credits,400 points. For now, the a-share environment deteriorated, peripheral areas: Portugal's credit rating by Fitch, the Grand Duke downgraded debt contagion fears Europe's major stock indexes continued to plunge this week; home: as exports and investment andFunding declines in growth rates, the economic situation increasingly gloomy November HSBC PMI initial-only 48, again falling to below the dry line, and the highest in a 32-month low. Generally speaking, the "economy is under real estate dilemma on the hard landing, or the policies under the fine tuning of a soft landing? "," Extent of the earnings downgrade "," impact of the European debt crisis "such risk has not been fullyRelease, and policies to improve results of PK, mobility improvements will determine whether a-shares can stabilise above the 2,300-point. Internal and external difficulties actually warmer policy PK, was a warm wind blew the a-share market in the near future the policy level. Macro-areas, inflation gradually downward trend of uncertain, policy fine-tuning, policy corner, the balance of economic policy began to "increaseLong "tilting; FR, Chairman of the SFC after he took office, first forcing bonus programme arrangements, especially at the time of IPO commitments is significant. Then launched six major initiatives to promote the stable and healthy development of capital markets, involving to the higher earnings release, the delisting mechanism long-term constraints such as a-shares and healthy development of the core issues, if subsequent to furtherIntroduce rules, their effects than feats of share splitting reform. Warm wind blowing with the policy, and fears in a down economy and the effects of European debt crisis intensified under the impact of a substantial reduction, in particular the European debt crisis deteriorating rapidly this week, Portugal's credit rating by Fitch, the Grand Duke down, Europe and the stock market plunging several days in a row, while the United States economy into a recession trend, according to the United States the mostNearly 4-quarter real GDP growth rate was 1.5%. Experience has shown that since 1948, this figure is lower than 2%, United States is in recession, a total of 11 times, without exception. At present, this wave of international capital markets tsunami has begun to affect the country. Data show that in October, China's foreign exchange since December 2007 3 yearsFor the first time in a row, showed foreign capital outflow of Chinese trade surplus narrowed, exports under pressure. Before the Mainland austerity policy remains in force, housing led to cool investment growth, especially HSBC November PMI initial value plunged to 48 this week, hit a 32-month low of messages, indeed, have sparked a round of panic, foreign investment banks issued "China's economyHard landing "increases the risk of freedom, in time, everyone from the joy of easing shifted to concerns about the economic downturn. Stocks dip again success will depend on whether the economy to a soft landing. Qu Hongbin, Chief China Economist at HSBC thinks November Manufacturing PMI initial decline reflected in the next month, industrial production growth is likely to slow furtherTo 11%~12%. While new export orders is still flexible, but domestic demand cools, and weaker external demand began. Barclays Capital also believes that although this does not mean that China's industrial production in the coming months must be in a recession, but at least China economic downside risks were increasing. Nomura, Chief China Economist Zhang Zhiwei even 2012 first-quarter GDP growthHolding to below 8%! Chances of a hard landing low, credit to increase by more than the market consensus forecasts, the November official China PMI index to below 50 per cent to 49 per cent level. "China economic alerts, central banks have officially release not far away. "People in the industry expected, in a State of economic decline, European debt crisis will spread, the Chinese Government will once again face" increasedLong "challenge. Qu Hongbin, believed that the positive side is that as inflation falling faster than expected, will be reserved for the Government unveils a selective easing of more space, that should gradually push China into a soft landing trajectory. This week, Zhejiang Provincial rural credit system allowed to redirect its institutions renminbi deposit reserve rate of 0.5% per cent, although the Central Bank clarified that this isDeposit rates of recovery are not reduced, but it's still being understood as the prelude of the Central Bank reduced reserve. In this regard, guotai Junan securities analysis, China's currency policy for multiple objectives such as growth, inflation and house prices. Four-quarter GDP is likely lower than 8.5%, the slowdown as the biggest risk, and in November will also fall in inflation to below 5%, OctoberThe national average, it was the first y/y drop, this meant that monetary policy shift has become inevitable. First step is to monetary easing of monetary policy shift, marked by a 3 year Central ticket rates downward, from 1 year of central interest rate cut is confirmed, the future is likely to drop interest rate cuts. Into the second step is credit easing of monetary policy, lower interest rates to credit demand, andCredit October monthly increase or increase in bank credit lines. However, UBS Securities Chief Economist at UBS said that, as long as the international financial markets, or without a sudden collapse in export demand, China is likely to continue the current policy state of tune. The future, China's main basis by controlling the money supply and credit lines to manage monetary policy, rather than adjusting interest rates. But if theDepletion of foreign exchange inflows continue, the Central Bank may need to cut the deposit reserve ratio may even cut before the end of 2011. No matter how the Government will ease monetary policy, but policy certainly, the inflection point has been able to confirm that, taking into account the relationship between stock market and monetary policy, October of persistent concern of lending growth. Review of recovery in the end of 2008Verification can be found in credit is the most important indicator of monetary, credit and even economic decision. For example, in November 2008 compared how credit increased, followed in March 2009 the economy begins to recover. Since the beginning of this year's economic growth rate continued to drop, the background is also declining credit growth. Jianyin investment analysis of the macroeconomic Division Li Chongbin, does not appear a hard landing in China,A-shares will not fall below 2,300 points. Credit October has begun per cent from increased estimated next December credit is expected to start up, because experience has shown that outflow of hot money tends to accompany back easing of monetary policy. In September 2008 continued outflow of hot money, how increase occurred November credit per cent last May 2010 continuing outflow of hot money swtor power leveling, JulyMonetary easing and credit more than increase also occurs. So speculate that at end-December stock market building will be completed next year, is coming back, and GDP are generally lagged one quarter, it is estimated that GDP growth will be at the bottom of the second quarter of next year. 20 years, the policies have been around the a-share market to, even after the State has decided to reduce the impact of policies on the stock market, policies in the currentStill is about the most important factors, and is also based on a policy corner of, this week's a-share markets to the peripheral market in the reign of brave talk. Technically, the market early in the near collapse of the bottom is not observed, volumes have shrunk, fluctuations become narrower, shenchengzhi early this week to its lowest point distance less than 2% at the bottom, and huzhi increased long-term healthLife line (history and 998 connector at the end of) the important support. ����Next, before shenchengzhi will fall below the end of huzhi can be stopped falling above the long-term rise in Lifeline, were current investors need to pay close attention to. Gold-line statement: Gold-line reproduced above, does not indicate that confirm the description for investor use only and does not constitute investment advice.Investors a basis for action, at your own risk.