129823520631718750_218Why the continued high growth of profits?
In 2011, the Chinese banking institution's total assets reached $ 113.28 trillion, accumulated 1.0412 trillion yuan in net profit for the year, than in 2010, an increase of 36.3%, than national profit of industrial enterprises above the designated size and national revenue growth was high and 10.9, respectively. Beautiful data reflects the since 2003Effectiveness of the country's banking sector reform, more banks to support macro-economic development has laid a solid foundation. However, so high profitability of the banking sector and the real economy is in the doldrums form a great contrast, leading to widely questioned by the community. From the Internet, from academic to professional media to government officials, from their point of view on the profitability of commercial banks conducted a vocal opposition. The majority ofThat banking snatch is the lack of morals "windfall". Emotional catharsis than rational thoughts on reality, is placed in a moral trial of commercial banks. Commercial banks are really lacking bloodthirsty economic animal? How to understand the current profitability of commercial banks? In 2007 since the onset of the global financial crisis, given the Chinese Government's RMB 4 trillion economic stimulus measures of realShi, sustained profit growth of China's commercial banks. 2008-2011, public bank net profit increase, respectively, 32.84%, and 33.48%. According to wind statistics, in 2007, the 16 listed banks ' net interest income, fees and commissions revenue and operating income was 958.7 billion yuan, 1$ 39.6 billion and $ 1.1 trillion in 2008, reached $ 1.2 trillion, $ 179.6 billion respectively, and $ 1.4 trillion in 2009, reached $ 1.1 trillion, respectively $ 225.2 billion and $ 2010, further reaching $ 1.4 trillion, $ 297.8 billion and $ 1.7 trillion. Such a high profitability and financialPerformance is in the global economy has continued to shrink, and entities in China under the background of economic difficulties to move on, no wonder social public envy envy and hate. However, such a high profit and why? Presence of "unethical"? Currency credit of commercial banks are operating special enterprise, pursuit of maximum profits is their instinct and bounden duty. Therefore, in theory does not existStandard for a reasonable amount of profit. The so-called "windfall", more out of emotional catharsis, are against many of the institutional arrangement and banking services of non-rational expressions, rather than a defined number. Strictly speaking, measuring the profitability of commercial banks, total profits is not very significant, profit level does not represent the total bank profitability, strong or weak. Because, at presentChina Banking monopolized the financial resources of the whole society, Community financing under a single reality, higher amount of profits of banking is the inevitable result. The author believes that measuring the profitability of commercial banks, in addition to the profit growth rate the relative indicators, more important is the yield on assets (ROA) and returns on capital (ROE) these two indicators of efficiency. 2011The end of China banking industry ROA as 1.30%,ROE as 20.4%. From a global perspective, ROA, ROE at a high level in the banking sector in China. In this regard, Zhou xiaochuan, Governor of the Central Bank believes that this is mainly due to the economic cycle, rather than spread. During the Asian financial turmoil, banks carry more high (about 3.6%), but banks comprehensive loss�� From the perspective of banking in developed countries, past earnings are good, but now is terrible, this is due to the economic cycle. So, there is something, but it is not comprehensive. In the author's view, Chinese banking profitability continued to grow in recent years stems from the following six main areas of powered support: fast and stable development of China's economy. Since the beginning of 21st century, China's economy has continued to maintain aA faster growth rate. 2001 GDP is $ 10 trillion, 2010 is already close to 40 trillion yuan, with an average annual compound growth rate of above 10%. Led by the indirect financing under the system of financing, 80% more than relying on bank credit in the amount of Community financing, direct-drive faster growth of Bank lending, constitute important based on the profitability of commercial banks.In the 2008-2009 stage of the global financial crisis, the most serious, many international banks suffered a heavy blow, while the China banking industry alone, profitability contrarian enhancement, this is to a large extent thanks to the rapid expansion of credit support. Mechanism of rapid growth in the money supply. Over the years, China currency policy's aim is to promote economic growth. In recent yearsAnti-crisis has become an important goal of monetary policy, that ultra high-speed growth in the money supply, resulting in a rapid expansion of the balance sheet of the banking sector. In 2007, the total nationwide banking assets of about $ 53 trillion, and quickly achieved double the end of 2011, more than 113 trillion yuan. High growth assets bring direct profits of Chinese banks and rapid growthLong. Prudent reform of interest rate marketization process. Price breakthrough in the reform of China's economic system reform. More than 30 years, except for some areas of the people's livelihood, commodity prices have been completely liberalized. Interest rates as the prices of capital, its market reform was relatively cautious and delayed. In recent years, although the pace of market-oriented reform of interest rates took a larger, but the deposit rates and lending ratesAre also under strict control of the Central Bank, commercial banks ' lack of independent pricing power. At present, although the competition between banking institutions is fierce, but reflect more on non-price aspects of competition, price competition is still subject to strict regulatory constraints. Long time, deposit and lending interest rates of the Central Bank has maintained around 3%, which as a stability system laid the foundation of the commercial banks ' profitability. In recent yearsCome to deal with the crisis, management has been in raising interest rates interest rate channel, widening spreads level, commercial banks ' profitability continued to improve. It is to be noted that, although spread levels over 3% in China, led to widespread social complaint, but from the perspective of international comparison, Chinese banks net interest margins in the secondary level only. The first half of 2011, the world's top banksWells Fargo Bank, JP Morgan, HSBC, Citi, Spain's Santander Bank, United States banks net interest margin of six banks respectively, 4.03%,, 2.54%,, 3.27%. And the "BRICS" savings bank of the Russian Federation, and Brazil Bank, India banks net interest margin on average, 6.88%And 6% than the margins are at a low level of China's banking industry. Can enhance the ability of commercial bank management. With the deepening of reform of the commercial banks, management of Chinese commercial banks and risk management skills continued to improve. The beginning of this century, China's banking bad loan ratio was close to 30%, international media that China's State-owned banks are technicallyAfter bankruptcy. After continued deepening of reform, 2011 three quarters of China's banking bad loan ratio has been reduced to 0.9%, or less than, the overall level of banking in developed countries. At present, China more than more than 200 commercial banks ' capital adequacy levels all compliance, national joint-stock banks capital adequacy level has increased to an average of 12.3% and provisioning coverage ratiosRising to 270.7%. At the same time, commercial banks ' cost management capabilities have been significantly enhanced. To reform the traditional extensive farming model, improved cost efficiency, in recent years, many banks active in process reengineering, centralized operations as well as to promote IT application in the background, has achieved remarkable results. Past five years, Chinese listed banks declined by the cost-income ratio 5Percentage point, profit, net profit per capita increases and 340%
Rift CD-key, respectively. Bargaining power lifting of bank loans. Before the crisis, in the context of adequate social mobility, commercial bank loans, especially for the large State-owned enterprise bargaining power decreases, loan interest rates are lower than the benchmark interest rate for all enterprises, commercial bank loans are basically for large State-owned enterprisesLoss. However, in order to maintain relationship with customers in the long term, at the same time, taking into account the customer's consolidated income, forced to accept lower interest rates of commercial banks. After the crisis, due to the financial supervision authority has imposed on commercial bank credit of strict administrative regulation, in loan size under controlled and coexistence of loan demand
Diablo 3 gold, banks on the bargaining power of the loan significantly higher�� Also, loan principal to the nation State-owned large and medium-sized enterprises, which are also important factors raise the profitability of a commercial bank. Banks run monetary credit for special industries. Traditional economics textbook that, in an economy of free movement of capital, industry profit margins will eventually approach the social average profit rate of convergence. However, economic security, social security, and the nationalSecurity considerations, the Government usually on those special trade monopoly protection. For most countries, in particular countries economy, competition can only be a limited number of monopolistic competition in the financial sector. In view of the special properties of the banking industry, operation and development of China's commercial banks have long been the State policy of protection, it gets included in the profits of certain "monopoly profits", whichIs the inevitable nature of business and administrative control. I believe that profitability is the measure of a country's banking sector key indicators of competitiveness. Higher profitability, embodiment is the base for the development of Chinese banks to achieve higher quality, is also important basis for achieving sustainable development of commercial banks in China. Maintain high profitability and strengthen China commercial bank on the development of the real economyCredit support, and promote the sustained and healthy development of the national economy, under conditions conducive to the opening of Chinese commercial banks to better participate in international competition, narrowing the gap with the advanced international banks, constantly improve our image and position in international financial markets. How to judge the sustainability of commercial banks ' profitability? Analysis above shows that China's commercial banks ' profitability continued to improve its reasonable, Without a moral relating to commercial banks, there is no commercial bank "advantage". Also, current profitability have periodic characteristics. Medium and long term, with the changes in the external economic environment, supporting commercial banks and high earnings momentum is gradually weakening, commercial banks profitability trend is bound to be smooth and normal. Part appears to slow China's economy in the future, directEffect of credit growth. China's economy has maintained a high growth in more than 30 years (average annual growth rate of nearly 10%), impossible to keep such a high growth rate in the future. There are four main reasons: one is the economic system reform of system "bonus" will diminish. Second is "demographic dividend" turning point coming. Transfer of rural surplus labor force will peak, cheap labour is unlimited forWill no longer exist. Third, "market opening bonus" will be deprecated. Traction effect of import and export trade to China's future economic growth will decline. Four are the environment, land and energy resources, has been overwhelmed. Premier Wen Jiabao of the State Council in five meetings for the working session of the national people's Congress put forward in the report, 2012 7.5% GDP growth. This is onA confirmation of China's macro-economic growth gradually slowed. Economic decisions and financial, direct change is brought about by the economic slowdown, credit growth over the past thousands of GDP growth of 10% support future economic growth slowing, credit and loan interest income will fall. Market-oriented reform of interest rates will gradually into the Sham Shui Po District, is the inevitable trend spreads narrowed. In"Twelve-Five" in the planning, Central made clear to "steadily promoting the reform of interest rate marketization." Recently, many experts and scholars, including Central Bank Governors believed that at present China's reform of interest rate marketization time has matured. The next phase of market-oriented reform of interest rates will have a breakthrough. From the historical experience of the United States, South Korea and Japan, interest rate spreads after the market fell significantly. United States 2.17% to 1.63%, Japan dropped from 2% to 1.6%, Korea decreased from 7% to 4.5%. On commercial bank's liquidity risk management of interest rate marketization and market risk management capabilities to make higher demands, on the mode of competition and viability of commercial banks will also have a significant impact. United States 1980-1986 years to complete the deposit interest rate marketReform in the next four years (1987-1990 years) average about 200 bank failures a year. Studies have shown that interest rate marketization in China Bank's net interest margin will narrow in the early 0.25%~0.5%, small and medium-sized banks ' net interest margin will narrow 1%~1.5%. Market-oriented reform of interest rates on the profitability of commercial banks in ChinaRose is going to be a severe test. Further highlights the financial disintermediation, space continue to be squeezed Bank profits. For nearly two years, commercial bank debt business development is difficult, many banks, especially small and medium-sized commercial bank loan to deposit ratio index of press regulation red line. One important reason is that deposits distributary of growing, began a massive outflow of deposits banking system. ForIn response to this situation, keep your business stable, commercial banks have to rely more on higher interest cost agreements and active liabilities deposits, financial products. The author believes that this trend will become more obvious in the future. In addition, as the direct finance markets (such as stock, bonds, private equity, and so on) and means of financing the development of rich, enterprises will be more diversified sources of commercial bankChallenges to be long-term financial disintermediation, bargaining power of the loans will gradually decline, decline in lending rates will be the inevitable trend. Banks open and competitive and deepening, will provide an impetus to the banking industry as a whole declining profitability. Now evaluate the profitability of the banking sector in China, mainly from the performance of listed banks. In fact, a large number of city commercial banks, rural credit cooperatives, small and mediumRefactoring current overall level of profitability and the listed banks also have some gaps. With the accelerated growth of the domestic small and medium banking institutions in the future, and the presence of more foreign banks, competition will be more intense, growing price war may be, banking sector overall profits will decline. Banks has clearly cyclical, continued growth in profits of Chinese banks are facing challenges. CommercialBank of current high-profit, is the product of specific periods, specific policies, lack of sustainability. Periodically determine the economy upward cycle in the banking sector, Bank profits will be higher if the economy is in a down cycle, a large number of bad loans will appear, Bank profits will be significantly reduced, even at a loss. Since the second half of 2011, China's economy into a downward weekTrend of growing, profits would have a negative impact on the Bank. To date, the Bank issued $ 10duowanyi of local government financing loan due 2012 there would be 1.84 trillion yuan. If part of these loans are not repaid on schedule, banking bad loans will rise sharply, profits will fall significantly. In particular, due to sharp drop in land sales revenueAnd local government financial revenues, declining local Government's ability to repay the loan. If local financing platforms increases the risk, banks bad loan rate will rebound, which in turn eroded the profitability of commercial banks. Although banks belonging to special industry, there is administrative monopoly protection. However, both in terms of Marxist economic theory, is also from the experience of developed countries, industryBarriers will gradually break down between capital and financial capital, transfer of capital in the industry will become more smooth and frequent relevance of financial capital and industrial capital of return the rate of return will also be enhanced, and tend to average. Commercial banks enjoy high profits cannot be divorced from the real economy. Increase support for the real economy, grow together, shared values and the real economy, ChinaDirection of the future development of the industry. How to treat the high growth in commercial bank's intermediary business income? At present, interest income is the income of commercial banks in China, and international advanced banking income is mainly from the business income. To reduce this gap, color enhanced business development system, China's intermediary business of commercial banks in recent years no one is not as business developmentAnd beyond the development stage business revenue share of high and low, as an important measure of whether a bank is advanced, modern logo. In my view, business is business, assets and liabilities of the intermediate business of modern commercial banks three business, at different stages of development, with different importance and status of three business. Beyond their own stages of financial development, Blind development of intermediary business, will lead to many negative problems, not conducive to the sound development of commercial banks. Intermediate business between Chinese and foreign banks lack of comparability of income. Commercial banking business income, usually made up of interest income and business income. In developed countries, due to the influence of capital market development and market-oriented interest rate, business income in the middle and gradually occupied the banks operating incomeSubject position (50%~80%), the share of interest income is shrinking (currently about 20%~50%). In the income structure of commercial banking in China, spread income accounts for the absolute subject status, most of the Bank's intermediate business share of income was less than 10%. Many people believe that revenue structure of commercial banks in China than in the developed world peersTo be much behind. In my view, Bank of China and developed countries are at different stages of development
TERA Gold, both the lack of comparability of business income structure. Simply compare tend to draw the wrong conclusions. In fact, until in the 1970 of the 20th century, the income structure of commercial banks in developed countries and China's current situation is basically similar. Commercial banks in developed countries thisIncome structure of the day, is actually in the 1970 of the 20th century after rapid rise and development of capital market and marketization complete passivity of 80 results, rather than the autonomy of bank select. Of course, experience has revealed to us in the development of the banking sector in developed countries, with the development of capital markets and the rapid evolution of marketization of interest rate in China, China commercial bank interest rate differentialsSurvival possibility of becoming smaller and smaller, increasingly highlighted the importance of developing the intermediate business. Rapid development of the intermediate business of Chinese banks, but more water in the intermediate business income. On October 1, 2003 to impose interim measures for the management of the commercial bank of service price, clear bank fee will only have more than 300 species. According to official data, the banking services projectA total of 1076 (of which, 226 free, percentage 21%; fee 850, 79%). Wuhan University study of more, that current bank fees has reached more than 3,000 species. Explosion in intermediate business of commercial banks, means that the business of commercial bank development, also means that the level of financial services in commercial banks increase. And businessIs of the type that corresponds to the number, intermediate business of commercial banks continued to grow. Especially in recent years, relatively high increase of the intermediate business of commercial banks. According to the wind, the third quarter 2011 16 listed bank fees and commissions, net income reached $ 320.4 billion, an increase of 44.5%, accelerated significantly exceeds the net interest income. Note that isAnd rapid growth of intermediate business of commercial banks in the near future there is a "false" issue, which lending charges, floating interest charge is serious, particularly in 2011 under the background of relative scarcity of credit funds, many floating interest rate loan of commercial banks that part into the middle of the business income. In fact, in early 2012, China Banking Regulatory Commission issued on the "seven not allowed", "Four public ", a series of non-standard aimed at regulation of banking and financial institutions operating in the 3rd, main finger at financial consultancy and advisory fees related to the credit and loan commitment fees on behalf of business fees. Loan fee, floating profit these "coupon go", and does not increase the Bank's income, nor affect the cost, but because of the changed structure, caused to peopleBank "indiscriminate collection" illusion. Intermediate business of commercial banks short-term income might drop, but the long-term trend to good. Advantages of developing intermediary business, can not use or less use of own capital of commercial banks, only as agent for the customer business and charge a fee for their low risk, profit and stability. Also, this is the business of commercial banks after the capital market development and expansionShow the inevitable. Therefore, in the long run, will continue the development of the intermediate business of commercial bank, position in the business structure will continue to improve. However, the short term, in view of the regulatory authorities and relevant departments of the Central Government in 2012 began to charge for strictly cleaning of commercial banks, estimated business income in the short term there will be a bigger drop. In fact, in the published annual reportListed in banking, a number of bank charges and Commission net income fell in 2011 four seasons, diplomatic relations between the workers and peasants in the five per cent decline respectively, 5%, 13%, and 10%. There are three reasons: first, people's banks, the CBRC and the Commission jointly issued the circular on banking institutions exempt from charges for some services provided,From personal account of the Yuan since July 1, 2011 34 11 classes of services fees. Second, October 2011 meeting of the State Council called for small micro-enterprise finance fees, consulting fees waived. Third quarter 2011 onwards, regulators on the specification of non-interest income, for not regulating business activity expand cleanup activities. In 2012, as the supervisory authority andFurther reorganization of the departments of the Central Government on bank charges, bank charges would be reduced further, even some of the fees charged are forced to cancel, business income in the Middle will have a larger decline in the short term. Should carefully study the intermediate business of commercial bank development strategy, continue to enhance the transparency of the charge for intermediary business. In recent years, on the development of commercial banksBusiness very seriously, and have adopted many positive measures. But it cannot be denied that lack of intermediate business of commercial bank development strategy there are many. For example, fees, fees, fees based on information, openness and transparency in the commercial banks not; again, customers when applying for a loan, interest can cover risks when looking at 7% to meet the superior lineAbout business requirements, it breaks the 7% per cent interest and 6% fees, interest income on the normal decomposition transformation. Of course, part of interest on bank loans into fees sometimes may be the enterprise initiative. Some enterprises are sometimes considered, of the Bank's interest rate risk is reflected, if interest rates are too high, will affect other sources of financing benefitsRate initiative want to change it to "6". In addition, and in the interest of consumers, banks will always select a policy more favourable to himself, coupled with a strong sense of service, usually "inadequate publicity, relief is not active". In short, to fundamentally resolve the bank charges issue, to standardize the fees of the commercial banks on the one hand, its authenticity and transparency. On the other handBy further opening up of the banking industry, the introduction of private capital, competition in the banking sector more fully implemented. As the market becomes more fully, banks failing like a shop, consciously and proactively improve financial services. How to steadily improve the profitability of commercial banks? In my view, to steadily improve the profitability of commercial banks in China, we must further deepen financial reformNot only to continue to deepen the reform of management mechanism of commercial banks, financial system reform to strengthen deep; it is necessary to establish a fully competitive banking system, breaking the monopoly in the banking sector, to establish a multi-level capital market. Encouraging more private capital into the banking sector, to further improve the financial system. A long time, strict control on government financial opening,Private capital's difficult involvement in banking. In recent years, although the policy allows to establish village banks and micro-credit companies, but still sets a variety of restrictions, small and medium enterprises credit demand remained legally are not addressed, can only continue to rely on high-interest rate loan, not only raising the loan interest rate, and increased business costs, reduced the enterprise profit space. AuthorBelieve that the financing problems of small and medium size enterprises, first of all, we must further improve the financial system. Outside national control of several large State-owned bank, should relax the restrictions for private capital to set up financial institutions, allow private capital to launch the establishment of village banks, community banks and other small financial institutions, build a coexistence of large, medium and small financial institutions financial organization system, playing a good small financialFrame, effectively widening the financing channels of small micro-enterprises. Of course, nature of the Bank decided to lower the threshold of financial institutions should be limited and prudent progressive. Otherwise, to attract a large number of short-term radical social capital into the banking sector, easier to form a financial black hole, affect the development of the real economy and the financial security of the State. Accelerating the development of capital markets, construction of equilibriumFinancial market system. Revenue from interest-bearing assets of commercial banks in China, and foreign banks mainly comes from the business. Because the developed countries have developed capital markets, greater capital needs is dependent on the stock market, bond market to raise funding for business development. Due to the underdeveloped capital markets in China, is more dependent on the funding needsBank loans-oriented indirect financing to raise funds. So, a simple comparison of Chinese and foreign commercial bank assets, return on capital structure, difficult description is better. However, the indirect financing as the main body of the Community financing system, capable of ensuring the profitability of commercial banks, but the social costs are relatively higher. From the perspective of trends in the development of the financial sector in the world, direct financingFinancing alternatives is an objective necessity. So, some time in the future, China's Bill market and the bond market and the stock market will continue to develop, and credit markets and currency markets will tend to shrink, both supply and demand of funds will have a more direct comparison of choice. It is to be noted that, while the development of the capital market will explode high total amount of profit of the Bank, but with the economyFinancial size continues to grow, profit does not reduce the size of the Bank. And, in the case of capital markets and financial markets in more balanced system development, product and business innovation of commercial banks will continue to enhance, new profit growth point of emergence, profitability of commercial banks will not be weakened. Promoting the construction of basic systems of commercial banks, accelerating the development of financial business�� To adjust the development strategy of commercial banks, at the choice of the customers more to small and medium enterprises, in particular small tilt of micro-enterprises, abandon the traditional one-sided pursuit of customer management strategies. Second, improving the credit approval process. At present, the commercial banks on the approval process for small micro-enterprises basically follows the approval process for large and medium-sized enterprises, has not only caused the loan costs, credit timeLong, inefficient loan, credit needs of small and micro-enterprises is the key "short, flat and fast" contrary to its features. Therefore, perfecting the loan process, form an effective credit policy making, implementation, mechanisms of checks and balances is very important. Three incentive mechanisms to establish scientific and reasonable. Small high default risk of micro-enterprise loans, loan default rates are relatively high. To strengthen commercial banking for small micro-enterprisesEnthusiasm for loans, government departments and regulatory authorities must establish effective incentive and restraint mechanism. For example, small micro-enterprise loans for commercial banks reduces drafts or the exemption of business tax, can make small micro-enterprise loans to commercial banks not to include loan size control, discount or included in the loan size control, and more. Four to establish "counter-cyclical" profit control mechanism, establish andDynamic linked to macro-economic growth and the growth of credit provision system. To properly understand the financing difficulty of this problem. Experience from around the world, small enterprises, especially the small micro-enterprise financing difficulty of the questions. Small business finance category essentially direct financing or financing by the Government, and not the responsibility of commercial banks. United States, for example, as a member of the Federal CabinetSmall Business Council, support for small enterprises included in the federal budget every year, each year to spend considerable money and resources supporting small enterprises. Lack of policies fostering small enterprises in China, not only lack of tax concessions, subsidies is negligible. Enterprise financing difficulty of small micro-Board only upon commercial bank, is neither fair nor reasonable. In this issue, the Government, theRegulators and society concerned should profoundly reflect on their own responsibility. In addition, capacity-building to strengthen financial regulation, improve regulatory rules, updates regulatory concepts, systems and methods, improving regulatory effectiveness and to constantly improve and perfect financial supervision coordination mechanisms, financial regulatory efforts, preventing systemic financial risk. (Author: investment banking strategyExhibition Department, Shandong University Economic Research Institute)
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