129836519530000000_143Gold: waiting for the last falling bank stocks to buy points to (unit)
Industry: people's Bank of China decided
official site, beginning on June 8, 2012 cut RMB benchmark deposit and lending rates of financial institutions. Benchmark one-year deposit rate financial institutions 0.25%, benchmark one-year lending rate 0.25%. With effect from the same day: (1) financial institutions deposit interest rate floating range adjustment at the top of the benchmark interest rate of 1.1 time, and (2) financial institutions to adjust the minimum lending rate floating range to 0.8 times times the benchmark interest rate. Comment: essentially asymmetrical cuts, sharply squeezed banks spread space. The rate cut, while 2-5-year deposit rates decline more than lending rates, to 30-40bp, and current deposit interest rates 10bp, but considering the deposit and loan interest rates-floatingAfter the expansion of dynamic range, worst case, Bank one-year deposit rate rose 8bp to 3.58%, and one-year weighted lending rates (assuming the original interest rate loans accounted for more than 90 percent of 20%) are down from 37bp to 6.06%, deposit and loan interest rates will be compressed 45bp (chart 1). How the Bank will respond? Short term: we judge, small and medium-sized banks loan depositPressure will have an incentive to actively increase deposit rates to the level CAP, and large bank deposit loss severe situations, will follow a rise in deposit rates in order to protect market share. However, if credit demand continued to fall, pressure relief and loan to deposit ratio, the Bank may also be more rational, such as the large bank deposit interest rates are often smaller banks in the market about low-25bp. In theLong term: to accelerate the process of interest rate marketization will give banks more independent space on the pricing of assets and liabilities. This difference will test bank management, Bank Fundamentals of differentiation trend is inevitable. Larger impact on the profit and loss account, profit will fall at least 2013 unit growth, does not exclude zero. If a separate investigation effect of rate cuts, as demand depositsInterest rate cut 10bp for 2012, the positive effect of listed Bank's net profits of about 1% for 2013, net profit affecting around 2%. However, interest rate floating range of adjustment on bank earnings impact larger. In the worst case, assume that all term deposit interest rates once float to the benchmark interest rate of 1.1 times (the original deposit can be rolled over on a regular basisHeavy pricing), while the original 90 percent interest rate on loans in accordance with the pricing period to adjust to 80 percent, the impact on net profits of listed banking 2012 and 2013 and 4%, respectively. Taken together, the wheel rate on Bank profit and loss statement impact of large growth in profit would fall to number of units is expected in 2013. If continue to cut interest rates in the second half of 1-2, you do not exhaustIn addition to 2013 Bank profits to zero. However helped to ease concerns about asset quality. Interest rate cuts and promoting marketization of interest rates to market delivered a strong "steady growth" signal. We believe that reduce the cost of financing helps to alleviate the financial burden of the industrial enterprises on the one hand, thereby improving profit margins, on the other hand helps to improve the investment needs of enterprises, thus promoting the marketEase on fears of an economic hard landing in China, helped ease investor concerns about banks ' asset quality. Valuation and recommendation: profit and loss statement, the balance sheet after: short-term insists on "defense", waiting for the market to digest the profit impact, meeting the buy point. We have so far this year has always stressed defense, 2 quarter listed in the policy will allow us to become one of the more positive signals are "dropMeans "that" does not rate cuts don't buy bank "judgments. Current rate cut signals have emerged, we think the market's concern about bank stocks will follow "from the profit to a balance sheet" path, impact of the namely digestion
link, cut interest rates on bank accounts, then reflected confidence in the balance sheet repair. Therefore, reiterated throughout the policy "after the first small": the short stick defense: choose certainty of high, Low risk of major banks, after the markets Digest earnings forecasts slashed, convert to the lowest valuation of smaller banks, after enjoying the asset quality worries eased, to the return of more than 1 time times the net asset value increases. A shares recommended combination for the Bank, China, agricultural Bank, construction Bank, ICBC.
H-share banks preferred Bank, Chongqing rural commercial banks, ICBC. 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