129773928472968750_78Hexun homepage established mobile phone version of the stock/fund micro-blogging news blog roll daily observation of gold community write rapidly economic observation on unit thermal financial political comments on the quality of literature and history on the finance peopleRubric interview and you say the global observation of weekly hexun.com comments > body font size print RSS March 27, 2012 from: Lewis turning point phase of the connotation of the China economic times in developing countriesEconomic development process can be divided into three stages: agricultural marginal productivity of labor is zero or very low in the first stage, agricultural marginal productivity of labour increased by but is still lower than non-agricultural industries in the second phase, basic conclusion of the transfer of surplus labor in rural areas, agriculture, labour and non-labour marginal output is basically the same for the third stage. "Lewis turning point" that determine economic developmentStage and an important indicator of the labor situation. Lewis pointed out that binary economic model made in it, in many developing countries, there are two very different economic sectors: the modernization of the industrial sector and the traditional agricultural sector, which are mainly concentrated in the cities, has a lot of capital, labour productivity is relatively high, while the latter mainly in rural labourRate is extremely low, farmers can only maintain a minimum standard of living. As long as the industrial sector could provide a slightly larger than maintaining the rural minimum living wage, transfer of surplus labor in the agricultural sector will continue to the industrial sector, providing unlimited supplies of labour for the expansion of the industrial sector. This process is continued until the labor force disappeared. When the surplus labor force in rural areas do not have, Turning point labour surplus will appear to shortages.
����The turning point was known as "lewisian". In fact, "Lewis turning point" is not sudden, but rather a gradual process of quantitative to qualitative changes. In the Lewis model of development, developing countries ' development process is divided into three stages: the first stage is the agricultural marginal productivity of laborFor zero or is low of stage, in this a stage, rural labor on non-agricultural industry has unlimited supply of elastic; as non-agricultural industry expansion and large rural labor transfer, economic development entered second stage, in this a stage, agricultural labor of marginal productivity rose, but still below non-agricultural industry, this a stage continued of labor transfer will led to wage rose; third stage is agriculturalBasic conclusion of the transfer of village surplus labor, agricultural labour and non-labour marginal output is basically the same (or, rather, traditional agricultural sector and the industrial sector wages much), at this stage, basic elimination of dual economy. Procedure above there are two critical turning points: Lewis the first turning point, is from the first phase to the second phase of the transition, That is, limited labour supply shifting from remaining indefinitely the rest of stage; second turning point of Lewis, was converted from the second stage to the third stage, which limited the rest of labor is fully out.
����From the time of the first turning point to a turning point in the second, is the Lewis turning point phase. Experience from some countries, Lewis turns stage needs to beDecades of time, but in developing countries go beyond a significant shortening of time for trends. Countries such as the United States and Britain of about 60 to 70 years, while Japan and Korea about spent nearly 20 years of time. Lewis turning point phase, in addition to the ordinary labour continued rapid wage growth
tera power leveling, Japan, and Korea in the urbanization rate, share of employment in agriculture has also some commonFeatures, such as when completing the Lewis turning point the rate of urbanization is higher than the cent, proportion of employment in agriculture is lower 60%. Lewis turning point phase of the overall process of international comparison now, Lewis has entered its first turning point in China, it is expected that by 2025-2030 period, China will basically complete labor force, arrived at the second turning point of Lewis,Enter the complete end of dual economy, integration of urban and rural development in the new stage. Since 2004, first appeared in the Pearl River Delta "labor shortage", the next few years, "labor shortage" growing phenomenon, by 2010, is not only in the East, Central and Western regions are starting to appear even job difficult. China is experiencing from the unlimited supplies of labour toShortage of change, has now entered the "Lewis the first turning point".
����From the international comparison, in China and Japan and South Korea entered the first Lewis turning point there are gaps, changes in the industrial structure and employment structure in advance, degree of structure of urban and rural residents ' income and balance are lagging. Combining theory and international experience, LewisSecond time turning point comes from the following three aspects to consider: first, the transfer of rural surplus labor force levels. According to the characteristics of China's rural surplus labour supply, added labor supply and demand using DRC-CGE model simulation, results of "Twelve-Five" in China during the new transfer labour force of about 8 million people a year-9.5 million people2016-2020, about 6 million-7.5 million people a year, about 5 million people between 2021-6 million people, by 2030 new transfer labour force of about 4 million people a year. Including through the University on labor migration, including migrant workers amount transferred is less than the total number of transfer. According to dieIntended results, the "Twelve-Five" period in China added 5 million migrant workers-6 million people each year, "Thirteen-Five" period-4.5 million to 3.5 million people, between 2020-2030 added 2 million-3 million people a year, migrant workers before and after to 2028 will reach 290 million new threat definitions. Based on the simulation results, projected to 2020Years in China agriculture some 214 million people by 2025 will be reduced to about 185 million people by 2030 will be reduced to about 160 million people. And estimated quantity of labour required for the 180 million to 190 million in agriculture.
����In other words, 2025-2030, China's surplus is almost completed. Second, agriculturalShare of industry. Economic growth will lead to continued growth in non-agricultural employment. Based on the DRC-CGE model of simulation results, in the medium and long term will continue for two or three industrial transfer of rural labor force in China. By 2025, agriculture in China will be reduced to about 185 million people, proportion of the total number of employees is about 24% by 2030 reduced to 160 millionAbout proportion of the total number of employees in 21%
tera gold, close to Japan and the ROK levels of the reaches the Lewis turning point in the second period. Third level of urbanization. Based on international experience and China's characteristics and is expected to peak between in-70% of the level of urbanization in China. In accordance with the current rate of development, is expected to wait until after 2020 China's urbanization rate may exceed the60%, close to Japan and South Korea reached the rate of urbanization level of the Lewis turning point in the second period.
����Based on the above analysis, in theory, it is expected that by 2025-2030 period, China will basically complete labor, Lewis's second turning point is reached, enter the complete end of dual economy, integration of urban and rural development in the new stage. LewisThe second turning point may come early for the current, effective labor in China has been very small, effective labor force in rural areas is expected to be in the "Thirteen-Five" basic implementation during the transfer, this would make Lewis a second turning point earlier.
����1. effective size of surplus labor in China is very small. According to the State Council Development Research Center Research GroupEstimates, although the total amount of surplus labor force in rural areas there are about 100 million people in China, which has a population of around 65 million are over the age of 40, is not a valid surplus labour. Genuine migrant rural surplus labor force of less than 35 million people, only about 35 million people that is effective in rural surplus labor. Due to the demand for labor in different agesDifferent, and different ages between labor and could not replace and simply increasing total employment may not be able to solve the employment problem of rural labour in specific age groups, but may in some age groups of the rural labor force (such as the aging labor force) still remaining cases, resulting in some age groups of the labour force (such as labour or skilled workers under 30 years old) do not workDemand.
����2. valid surplus labor in rural areas will be in the "Thirteen-Five" basic implementation during the transfer. The "Twelve-Five" period, China's new urban and rural areas of about 40 million people, with added labor of about 20 million people in rural areas (assuming that the new labour in rural areas accounted for around 50%). The other hand, the transfer of rural labor force will increase of about 43 million peopleNet rural New (from a realistic point of view, it can be assumed that all new out of employment), transfer of the stock of about 23 million people (4300-2000=2300), the "Twelve-Five" stage of effective labor has only 12 million people (3500-2300=1200), in accordance with the practice of transfer speed, the effective remainingLabor will be in "Thirteen-Five" medium-term transfer is complete. In other words, Lewis's second turning point in fact likely around 2017 to, by 2020 it will have finished the Lewis turning point process with Chinese characteristics. This also means that in the next 10 years or so, to migrant workers as the main body of the ordinary labour wages will still maintain a relatively rapid growth rate,Improve income distribution structure
tera gold, speed up the upgrading of the industrial structure in China is of great significance. (Author: Rural Economic Research Department of the development research center of the State Council)
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